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freedakgmail
2026-07-01 21:06:59 +08:00
parent 97d873b6dc
commit bc7283747f
12 changed files with 2 additions and 12197 deletions
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date,point_forecast,mean,q10,q20,q30,q40,q50,q60,q70,q80,q90
2025-01-01,1.2223774,1.2215943,1.1230627,1.1613995,1.1832488,1.2030286,1.2223774,1.240989,1.2626991,1.2927711,1.339603
2025-02-01,1.2563584,1.2502017,1.1482248,1.1891649,1.2134029,1.2355918,1.2563584,1.2787917,1.3061507,1.3358022,1.3880283
2025-03-01,1.286477,1.2816916,1.1694773,1.2141376,1.2430503,1.2636719,1.286477,1.3101407,1.3365126,1.3725822,1.4265702
2025-04-01,1.240488,1.2406754,1.119298,1.1689228,1.1957527,1.2162383,1.240488,1.265359,1.2880774,1.3237736,1.3806401
2025-05-01,1.2026378,1.1969143,1.0776879,1.1280149,1.1554759,1.1801765,1.2026378,1.2274072,1.2546852,1.2890899,1.3469675
2025-06-01,1.21002,1.1963896,1.0811386,1.1352499,1.1687461,1.1853771,1.21002,1.2333429,1.255994,1.2938039,1.3532466
2025-07-01,1.2253109,1.2151253,1.0917634,1.1474797,1.176413,1.2029413,1.2253109,1.250956,1.2764856,1.3113455,1.3728349
2025-08-01,1.2421811,1.2292916,1.1043029,1.1598811,1.1929151,1.2164187,1.2421811,1.266998,1.2924675,1.3304923,1.394975
2025-09-01,1.269735,1.2603163,1.1239274,1.1872942,1.2162873,1.242951,1.269735,1.2976494,1.3236798,1.3580028,1.4252181
2025-10-01,1.2496669,1.2436218,1.0962446,1.1630417,1.1938806,1.221712,1.2496669,1.2757387,1.3041382,1.3376691,1.409816
2025-11-01,1.2135266,1.2031629,1.0545524,1.1223581,1.157211,1.1864623,1.2135266,1.2447275,1.2706528,1.3091388,1.3801678
2025-12-01,1.2034141,1.1867243,1.0412307,1.1113251,1.1433371,1.1752325,1.2034141,1.2308054,1.2621957,1.2912495,1.370078
1 date point_forecast mean q10 q20 q30 q40 q50 q60 q70 q80 q90
2 2025-01-01 1.2223774 1.2215943 1.1230627 1.1613995 1.1832488 1.2030286 1.2223774 1.240989 1.2626991 1.2927711 1.339603
3 2025-02-01 1.2563584 1.2502017 1.1482248 1.1891649 1.2134029 1.2355918 1.2563584 1.2787917 1.3061507 1.3358022 1.3880283
4 2025-03-01 1.286477 1.2816916 1.1694773 1.2141376 1.2430503 1.2636719 1.286477 1.3101407 1.3365126 1.3725822 1.4265702
5 2025-04-01 1.240488 1.2406754 1.119298 1.1689228 1.1957527 1.2162383 1.240488 1.265359 1.2880774 1.3237736 1.3806401
6 2025-05-01 1.2026378 1.1969143 1.0776879 1.1280149 1.1554759 1.1801765 1.2026378 1.2274072 1.2546852 1.2890899 1.3469675
7 2025-06-01 1.21002 1.1963896 1.0811386 1.1352499 1.1687461 1.1853771 1.21002 1.2333429 1.255994 1.2938039 1.3532466
8 2025-07-01 1.2253109 1.2151253 1.0917634 1.1474797 1.176413 1.2029413 1.2253109 1.250956 1.2764856 1.3113455 1.3728349
9 2025-08-01 1.2421811 1.2292916 1.1043029 1.1598811 1.1929151 1.2164187 1.2421811 1.266998 1.2924675 1.3304923 1.394975
10 2025-09-01 1.269735 1.2603163 1.1239274 1.1872942 1.2162873 1.242951 1.269735 1.2976494 1.3236798 1.3580028 1.4252181
11 2025-10-01 1.2496669 1.2436218 1.0962446 1.1630417 1.1938806 1.221712 1.2496669 1.2757387 1.3041382 1.3376691 1.409816
12 2025-11-01 1.2135266 1.2031629 1.0545524 1.1223581 1.157211 1.1864623 1.2135266 1.2447275 1.2706528 1.3091388 1.3801678
13 2025-12-01 1.2034141 1.1867243 1.0412307 1.1113251 1.1433371 1.1752325 1.2034141 1.2308054 1.2621957 1.2912495 1.370078
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{
"model": "TimesFM 2.5 (200M) PyTorch",
"input": {
"source": "NOAA GISTEMP Global Temperature Anomaly",
"n_observations": 36,
"date_range": "2022-01 to 2024-12",
"mean_anomaly_c": 1.09
},
"forecast": {
"horizon": 12,
"dates": [
"2025-01",
"2025-02",
"2025-03",
"2025-04",
"2025-05",
"2025-06",
"2025-07",
"2025-08",
"2025-09",
"2025-10",
"2025-11",
"2025-12"
],
"point": [
1.2223774194717407,
1.2563583850860596,
1.286476969718933,
1.240488052368164,
1.202637791633606,
1.2100199460983276,
1.2253109216690063,
1.2421810626983643,
1.2697349786758423,
1.2496669292449951,
1.2135266065597534,
1.2034140825271606
],
"quantiles": {
"mean": [
1.2215943336486816,
1.25020170211792,
1.281691551208496,
1.240675449371338,
1.1969143152236938,
1.1963895559310913,
1.215125322341919,
1.229291558265686,
1.260316252708435,
1.243621826171875,
1.2031629085540771,
1.186724305152893
],
"10%": [
1.1230627298355103,
1.1482248306274414,
1.1694773435592651,
1.119297981262207,
1.0776878595352173,
1.0811386108398438,
1.0917633771896362,
1.1043028831481934,
1.123927354812622,
1.0962445735931396,
1.054552435874939,
1.0412306785583496
],
"20%": [
1.161399483680725,
1.1891648769378662,
1.2141375541687012,
1.168922781944275,
1.1280149221420288,
1.1352498531341553,
1.1474796533584595,
1.1598811149597168,
1.1872942447662354,
1.1630417108535767,
1.1223580837249756,
1.1113251447677612
],
"30%": [
1.18324875831604,
1.2134028673171997,
1.2430503368377686,
1.195752739906311,
1.1554758548736572,
1.1687461137771606,
1.1764130592346191,
1.1929150819778442,
1.2162872552871704,
1.193880558013916,
1.1572109460830688,
1.1433371305465698
],
"40%": [
1.2030285596847534,
1.2355917692184448,
1.263671875,
1.216238260269165,
1.1801764965057373,
1.1853771209716797,
1.2029412984848022,
1.216418743133545,
1.2429510354995728,
1.2217119932174683,
1.1864622831344604,
1.1752325296401978
],
"50%": [
1.2223774194717407,
1.2563583850860596,
1.286476969718933,
1.240488052368164,
1.202637791633606,
1.2100199460983276,
1.2253109216690063,
1.2421810626983643,
1.2697349786758423,
1.2496669292449951,
1.2135266065597534,
1.2034140825271606
],
"60%": [
1.2409889698028564,
1.2787916660308838,
1.3101407289505005,
1.2653590440750122,
1.2274072170257568,
1.2333428859710693,
1.2509560585021973,
1.266998052597046,
1.2976493835449219,
1.2757387161254883,
1.2447274923324585,
1.2308053970336914
],
"70%": [
1.2626991271972656,
1.3061506748199463,
1.336512565612793,
1.2880773544311523,
1.2546851634979248,
1.2559939622879028,
1.276485562324524,
1.292467474937439,
1.323679804801941,
1.30413818359375,
1.2706527709960938,
1.2621957063674927
],
"80%": [
1.2927711009979248,
1.3358021974563599,
1.372582197189331,
1.3237736225128174,
1.2890899181365967,
1.2938039302825928,
1.3113454580307007,
1.3304922580718994,
1.358002781867981,
1.3376691341400146,
1.3091387748718262,
1.2912495136260986
],
"90%": [
1.3396029472351074,
1.3880282640457153,
1.426570177078247,
1.3806401491165161,
1.3469674587249756,
1.3532465696334839,
1.3728349208831787,
1.394974946975708,
1.425218105316162,
1.409816026687622,
1.380167841911316,
1.3700779676437378
]
}
},
"summary": {
"forecast_mean_c": 1.235,
"forecast_max_c": 1.286,
"forecast_min_c": 1.203,
"vs_last_year_mean": -0.017
}
}
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