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This commit is contained in:
Yichen Zhou
2024-04-30 10:58:13 -07:00
committed by Yichen Zhou
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# Extended Benchmarks
The benchmark setting has been borrowed from Nixtla's original [benchmarking](https://github.com/AzulGarza/nixtla/tree/main/experiments/amazon-chronos) of time-series foundation models against a strong statistical ensemble. Later more datasets were added by the Chronos team in this [pull request](https://github.com/shchur/nixtla/tree/chronos-full-eval/experiments/amazon-chronos). We compare on all the datasets in this extended benchmarks.
All experiments were performed on a [g2-standard-32](https://cloud.google.com/compute/docs/gpus).
## Running TimesFM on the benchmark
Install the environment and the package as detailed in the main README and then follow the steps from the base directory.
```
conda activate tfm_env
TF_CPP_MIN_LOG_LEVEL=2 XLA_PYTHON_CLIENT_PREALLOCATE=false python3 -m experiments.extended_benchmarks.run_timesfm --model_path=<model_path> --backend="gpu"
```
In the above, `<model_path>` should point to the checkpoint directory that can be downloaded from HuggingFace.
Note: In the current version of TimesFM we focus on point forecasts and therefore the mase, smape have been calculated using the quantile head corresponding to the median i.e 0.5 quantile. We do offer 10 quantile heads but they have not been calibrated after pretraining. We recommend using them with caution or calibrate/conformalize them on a hold out for your applications. More to follow on later versions.
## Benchmark Results
![Benchmark Results Table](./tfm_results.png)
We can see that TimesFM performs the best in terms of both mase and smape. More importantly it is much faster than the other methods, in particular it is more than 600x faster than StatisticalEnsemble and 80x faster than Chronos (Large).
Note: This benchmark only compares on `one` small horizon window for long horizon datasets like ETT hourly and 15 minutes. More in depth comparison on longer horizon rolling validation tasks are presented in our long horizon benchmarks.
@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
# Copyright 2024 Google LLC
#
# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at
#
# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.
"""Evaluation script for timesfm."""
import os
import sys
import time
from absl import flags
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from paxml import checkpoints
import timesfm
from .utils import ExperimentHandler
dataset_names = [
"m1_monthly",
"m1_quarterly",
"m1_yearly",
"m3_monthly",
"m3_other",
"m3_quarterly",
"m3_yearly",
"m4_quarterly",
"m4_yearly",
"tourism_monthly",
"tourism_quarterly",
"tourism_yearly",
"nn5_daily_without_missing",
"m5",
"nn5_weekly",
"traffic",
"weather",
"dominick",
"australian_electricity_demand",
"car_parts_without_missing",
"cif_2016",
"covid_deaths",
"ercot",
"ett_small_15min",
"ett_small_1h",
"exchange_rate",
"fred_md",
"hospital",
]
context_dict = {
"cif_2016": 32,
"tourism_yearly": 64,
"covid_deaths": 64,
"tourism_quarterly": 64,
"tourism_monthly": 64,
"m1_monthly": 64,
"m1_quarterly": 64,
"m1_yearly": 64,
"m3_monthly": 64,
"m3_other": 64,
"m3_quarterly": 64,
"m3_yearly": 64,
"m4_quarterly": 64,
"m4_yearly": 64,
}
_MODEL_PATH = flags.DEFINE_string(
"model_path", "/home/timesfm_q10_20240501", "Path to model"
)
_BATCH_SIZE = flags.DEFINE_integer("batch_size", 64, "Batch size")
_HORIZON = flags.DEFINE_integer("horizon", 128, "Horizon")
_BACKEND = flags.DEFINE_string("backend", "gpu", "Backend")
_NUM_JOBS = flags.DEFINE_integer("num_jobs", 1, "Number of jobs")
_SAVE_DIR = flags.DEFINE_string("save_dir", "./results", "Save directory")
QUANTILES = list(np.arange(1, 10) / 10.0)
def main():
results_list = []
tfm = timesfm.TimesFm(
context_len=512,
horizon_len=_HORIZON.value,
input_patch_len=32,
output_patch_len=128,
num_layers=20,
model_dims=1280,
backend=_BACKEND.value,
per_core_batch_size=_BATCH_SIZE.value,
quantiles=QUANTILES,
)
tfm.load_from_checkpoint(
_MODEL_PATH.value,
checkpoint_type=checkpoints.CheckpointType.FLAX,
)
run_id = np.random.randint(100000)
model_name = "timesfm"
for dataset in dataset_names:
print(f"Evaluating model {model_name} on dataset {dataset}", flush=True)
exp = ExperimentHandler(dataset, quantiles=QUANTILES)
if dataset in context_dict:
context_len = context_dict[dataset]
else:
context_len = 512
train_df = exp.train_df
freq = exp.freq
init_time = time.time()
fcsts_df = tfm.forecast_on_df(
inputs=train_df,
freq=freq,
value_name="y",
model_name=model_name,
forecast_context_len=context_len,
num_jobs=_NUM_JOBS.value,
)
total_time = time.time() - init_time
time_df = pd.DataFrame({"time": [total_time], "model": model_name})
results = exp.evaluate_from_predictions(
models=[model_name], fcsts_df=fcsts_df, times_df=time_df
)
print(results, flush=True)
results_list.append(results)
results_full = pd.concat(results_list)
save_path = os.path.join(_SAVE_DIR.value, str(run_id))
print(f"Saving results to {save_path}", flush=True)
os.makedirs(save_path, exist_ok=True)
results_full.to_csv(f"{save_path}/results.csv")
if __name__ == "__main__":
FLAGS = flags.FLAGS
FLAGS(sys.argv)
main()
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# Copyright 2024 Google LLC
#
# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at
#
# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.
"""Forked from https://github.com/Nixtla/nixtla/blob/main/experiments/amazon-chronos/src/utils.py."""
from functools import partial
from itertools import repeat
import multiprocessing
import os
from pathlib import Path
from typing import List
from gluonts.dataset import Dataset
from gluonts.dataset.repository.datasets import (
dataset_names as gluonts_datasets,
get_dataset,
)
from gluonts.time_feature.seasonality import get_seasonality
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from utilsforecast.evaluation import evaluate
from utilsforecast.losses import mae, mase, smape
def parallel_transform(inp):
ts, last_n = inp[0], inp[1]
return ExperimentHandler._transform_gluonts_instance_to_df(ts, last_n=last_n)
def quantile_loss(
df: pd.DataFrame,
models: list,
q: float = 0.5,
id_col: str = "unique_id",
target_col: str = "y",
) -> pd.DataFrame:
delta_y = df[models].sub(df[target_col], axis=0)
res = (
np.maximum(q * delta_y, (q - 1) * delta_y)
.groupby(df[id_col], observed=True)
.mean()
)
res.index.name = id_col
res = res.reset_index()
return res
class ExperimentHandler:
def __init__(
self,
dataset: str,
quantiles: List[float] = list(np.arange(1, 10) / 10.0),
results_dir: str = "./results",
models_dir: str = "./models",
):
if dataset not in gluonts_datasets:
raise Exception(
f"dataset {dataset} not found in gluonts "
f"available datasets: {', '.join(gluonts_datasets)}"
)
self.dataset = dataset
self.quantiles = quantiles
self.level = self._transform_quantiles_to_levels(quantiles)
self.results_dir = results_dir
self.models_dir = models_dir
# defining datasets
self._maybe_download_m3_or_m5_file(self.dataset)
gluonts_dataset = get_dataset(self.dataset)
self.horizon = gluonts_dataset.metadata.prediction_length
if self.horizon is None:
raise Exception(
f"horizon not found for dataset {self.dataset} "
"experiment cannot be run"
)
self.freq = gluonts_dataset.metadata.freq
# get_seasonality() returns 1 for freq='D', override this to 7. This significantly improves the accuracy of
# statistical models on datasets like m5/nn5_daily. The models like AutoARIMA/AutoETS can still set
# seasonality=1 internally on datasets like weather by choosing non-seasonal models during model selection.
if self.freq == "D":
self.seasonality = 7
else:
self.seasonality = get_seasonality(self.freq)
self.gluonts_train_dataset = gluonts_dataset.train
self.gluonts_test_dataset = gluonts_dataset.test
self._create_dir_if_not_exists(self.results_dir)
try:
multiprocessing.set_start_method("spawn")
except RuntimeError:
print("Multiprocessing context has already been set.")
@staticmethod
def _maybe_download_m3_or_m5_file(dataset: str):
if dataset[:2] == "m3":
m3_file = Path.home() / ".gluonts" / "datasets" / "M3C.xls"
if not m3_file.exists():
from datasetsforecast.m3 import M3
from datasetsforecast.utils import download_file
download_file(m3_file.parent, M3.source_url)
elif dataset == "m5":
m5_raw_dir = Path.home() / ".gluonts" / "m5"
if not m5_raw_dir.exists():
import zipfile
from datasetsforecast.m5 import M5
from datasetsforecast.utils import download_file
download_file(m5_raw_dir, M5.source_url)
with zipfile.ZipFile(m5_raw_dir / "m5.zip", "r") as zip_ref:
zip_ref.extractall(m5_raw_dir)
@staticmethod
def _transform_quantiles_to_levels(quantiles: List[float]) -> List[int]:
level = [
int(100 - 200 * q) for q in quantiles if q < 0.5
] # in this case mean=mediain
level = sorted(list(set(level)))
return level
@staticmethod
def _create_dir_if_not_exists(directory: str):
Path(directory).mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
@staticmethod
def _transform_gluonts_instance_to_df(
ts: dict,
last_n: int | None = None,
) -> pd.DataFrame:
start_period = ts["start"]
start_ds, freq = start_period.to_timestamp(), start_period.freq
target = ts["target"]
ds = pd.date_range(start=start_ds, freq=freq, periods=len(target))
if last_n is not None:
target = target[-last_n:]
ds = ds[-last_n:]
ts_df = pd.DataFrame({"unique_id": ts["item_id"], "ds": ds, "y": target})
return ts_df
@staticmethod
def _transform_gluonts_dataset_to_df(
gluonts_dataset: Dataset,
last_n: int | None = None,
) -> pd.DataFrame:
with multiprocessing.Pool(os.cpu_count()) as pool: # Create a process pool
results = pool.map(
parallel_transform, zip(gluonts_dataset, repeat(last_n))
)
df = pd.concat(results)
df = df.reset_index(drop=True)
return df
@property
def train_df(self) -> pd.DataFrame:
train_df = self._transform_gluonts_dataset_to_df(self.gluonts_train_dataset)
return train_df
@property
def test_df(self) -> pd.DataFrame:
test_df = self._transform_gluonts_dataset_to_df(
self.gluonts_test_dataset,
last_n=self.horizon,
)
# Make sure that only the first backtest window is used for evaluation on `traffic` / `exchange_rate` datasets
return test_df.groupby("unique_id", sort=False).head(self.horizon)
def save_dataframe(self, df: pd.DataFrame, file_name: str):
df.to_csv(f"{self.results_dir}/{file_name}", index=False)
def save_results(
self, fcst_df: pd.DataFrame, total_time: float, model_name: str
):
self.save_dataframe(
fcst_df,
f"{model_name}-{self.dataset}-fcst.csv",
)
time_df = pd.DataFrame({"time": [total_time], "model": model_name})
self.save_dataframe(
time_df,
f"{model_name}-{self.dataset}-time.csv",
)
def fcst_from_level_to_quantiles(
self,
fcst_df: pd.DataFrame,
model_name: str,
) -> pd.DataFrame:
fcst_df = fcst_df.copy()
cols = ["unique_id", "ds", model_name]
for q in self.quantiles:
if q == 0.5:
col = f"{model_name}"
else:
lv = int(100 - 200 * q)
hi_or_lo = "lo" if lv > 0 else "hi"
lv = abs(lv)
col = f"{model_name}-{hi_or_lo}-{lv}"
q_col = f"{model_name}-q-{q}"
fcst_df[q_col] = fcst_df[col].values
cols.append(q_col)
return fcst_df[cols]
def evaluate_models(self, models: List[str]) -> pd.DataFrame:
fcsts_df = []
times_df = []
for model in models:
fcst_method_df = pd.read_csv(
f"{self.results_dir}/{model}-{self.dataset}-fcst.csv"
).set_index(["unique_id", "ds"])
fcsts_df.append(fcst_method_df)
time_method_df = pd.read_csv(
f"{self.results_dir}/{model}-{self.dataset}-time.csv"
)
times_df.append(time_method_df)
fcsts_df = pd.concat(fcsts_df, axis=1).reset_index()
fcsts_df["ds"] = pd.to_datetime(fcsts_df["ds"])
times_df = pd.concat(times_df)
return self.evaluate_from_predictions(
models=models, fcsts_df=fcsts_df, times_df=times_df
)
def evaluate_from_predictions(
self, models: List[str], fcsts_df: pd.DataFrame, times_df: pd.DataFrame
) -> pd.DataFrame:
test_df = self.test_df
train_df = self.train_df
test_df = test_df.merge(fcsts_df, how="left")
assert test_df.isna().sum().sum() == 0, "merge contains nas"
# point evaluation
point_fcsts_cols = ["unique_id", "ds", "y"] + models
test_df["unique_id"] = test_df["unique_id"].astype(str)
train_df["unique_id"] = train_df["unique_id"].astype(str)
mase_seas = partial(mase, seasonality=self.seasonality)
eval_df = evaluate(
test_df[point_fcsts_cols],
train_df=train_df,
metrics=[smape, mase_seas, mae],
)
# probabilistic evaluation
eval_prob_df = []
for q in self.quantiles:
prob_cols = [f"{model}-q-{q}" for model in models]
eval_q_df = quantile_loss(test_df, models=prob_cols, q=q)
eval_q_df[prob_cols] = eval_q_df[prob_cols] * self.horizon
eval_q_df = eval_q_df.rename(columns=dict(zip(prob_cols, models)))
eval_q_df["metric"] = f"quantile-loss-{q}"
eval_prob_df.append(eval_q_df)
eval_prob_df = pd.concat(eval_prob_df)
eval_prob_df = eval_prob_df.groupby("metric").sum().reset_index()
total_y = test_df["y"].sum()
eval_prob_df[models] = eval_prob_df[models] / total_y
eval_prob_df["metric"] = "scaled_crps"
eval_df = pd.concat([eval_df, eval_prob_df]).reset_index(drop=True)
eval_df = eval_df.groupby("metric").mean(numeric_only=True).reset_index()
eval_df = eval_df.melt(
id_vars="metric", value_name="value", var_name="model"
)
times_df.insert(0, "metric", "time")
times_df = times_df.rename(columns={"time": "value"})
eval_df = pd.concat([eval_df, times_df])
eval_df.insert(0, "dataset", self.dataset)
eval_df = eval_df.sort_values(["dataset", "metric", "model"])
eval_df = eval_df.reset_index(drop=True)
return eval_df
if __name__ == "__main__":
multiprocessing.set_start_method("spawn")
@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
# Extended Benchmarks
We benchmark on the original test set for ETT datasets as per long horizon benchmark papers (see [here](https://openreview.net/forum?id=pCbC3aQB5W) for example.) In the original benchmark, rolling validation task on all test windows (with a stride of 1) is considered. While we can easily run our method on this task, the baselines can take a very long time to run. Therefore we present results on a modified task with stride between windows set to Horizon length i.e all disjoint horizons in the test period is considered.
All experiments were performed on a [g2-standard-32](https://cloud.google.com/compute/docs/gpus). We compare TimesFM with [Amazon-Chronos](https://github.com/amazon-science/chronos-forecasting).
## Running TimesFM on the benchmark
Install the environment and the package as detailed in the main README and then follow the steps from the base directory.
```
conda activate tfm_env
TF_CPP_MIN_LOG_LEVEL=2 XLA_PYTHON_CLIENT_PREALLOCATE=false python3 -m experiments.long_horizon_benchmarks.run_eval \
--model_path=<model_path> --backend="gpu" \
--pred_len=96 --context_len=512 --dataset=etth1
```
In the above, `<model_path>` should point to the checkpoint directory that can be downloaded from HuggingFace.
For running chronos on the same benchmark you can run the command,
```
TF_CPP_MIN_LOG_LEVEL=2 XLA_PYTHON_CLIENT_PREALLOCATE=false python3 -m experiments.long_horizon_benchmarks.run_eval \
--model_path=amazon/chronos-t5-mini --backend="gpu" \
--pred_len=96 --context_len=512 --dataset=etth1
```
You can change the model size from "mini" to "large" as required. The datasets we benchmark on are etth1, etth2, ettm1 and ettm2.
## Benchmark Results
![Benchmark Results Table](./tfm_long_horizon.png)
We compare the performance on horizon lengths of 96, 192 and 336, while context length is held fixed at 512.
We can see that TimesFM performs the best in terms of both wape and smape. More importantly it is much faster than the other methods, in particular it is more than 1000x faster than Chronos (Large).
@@ -0,0 +1,261 @@
# Copyright 2024 The Google Research Authors.
#
# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at
#
# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.
"""TF dataloaders for general timeseries datasets.
The expected input format is csv file with a datetime index.
"""
from absl import logging
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
import tensorflow as tf
from . import time_features
class TimeSeriesdata(object):
"""Data loader class."""
def __init__(
self,
data_path,
datetime_col,
num_cov_cols,
cat_cov_cols,
ts_cols,
train_range,
val_range,
test_range,
hist_len,
pred_len,
batch_size,
freq='H',
normalize=True,
epoch_len=None,
holiday=False,
permute=True,
):
"""Initialize objects.
Args:
data_path: path to csv file
datetime_col: column name for datetime col
num_cov_cols: list of numerical global covariates
cat_cov_cols: list of categorical global covariates
ts_cols: columns corresponding to ts
train_range: tuple of train ranges
val_range: tuple of validation ranges
test_range: tuple of test ranges
hist_len: historical context
pred_len: prediction length
batch_size: batch size (number of ts in a batch)
freq: freq of original data
normalize: std. normalize data or not
epoch_len: num iters in an epoch
holiday: use holiday features or not
permute: permute ts in train batches or not
Returns:
None
"""
self.data_df = pd.read_csv(open(data_path, 'r'))
if not num_cov_cols:
self.data_df['ncol'] = np.zeros(self.data_df.shape[0])
num_cov_cols = ['ncol']
if not cat_cov_cols:
self.data_df['ccol'] = np.zeros(self.data_df.shape[0])
cat_cov_cols = ['ccol']
self.data_df.fillna(0, inplace=True)
self.data_df.set_index(
pd.DatetimeIndex(self.data_df[datetime_col]), inplace=True
)
self.num_cov_cols = num_cov_cols
self.cat_cov_cols = cat_cov_cols
self.ts_cols = ts_cols
self.train_range = train_range
self.val_range = val_range
self.test_range = test_range
data_df_idx = self.data_df.index
date_index = data_df_idx.union(
pd.date_range(
data_df_idx[-1] + pd.Timedelta(1, freq=freq),
periods=pred_len + 1,
freq=freq,
)
)
self.time_df = time_features.TimeCovariates(
date_index, holiday=holiday
).get_covariates()
self.hist_len = hist_len
self.pred_len = pred_len
self.batch_size = batch_size
self.freq = freq
self.normalize = normalize
self.data_mat = self.data_df[self.ts_cols].to_numpy().transpose()
self.data_mat = self.data_mat[:, 0 : self.test_range[1]]
self.time_mat = self.time_df.to_numpy().transpose()
self.num_feat_mat = self.data_df[num_cov_cols].to_numpy().transpose()
self.cat_feat_mat, self.cat_sizes = self._get_cat_cols(cat_cov_cols)
self.normalize = normalize
if normalize:
self._normalize_data()
logging.info(
'Data Shapes: %s, %s, %s, %s',
self.data_mat.shape,
self.time_mat.shape,
self.num_feat_mat.shape,
self.cat_feat_mat.shape,
)
self.epoch_len = epoch_len
self.permute = permute
def _get_cat_cols(self, cat_cov_cols):
"""Get categorical columns."""
cat_vars = []
cat_sizes = []
for col in cat_cov_cols:
dct = {x: i for i, x in enumerate(self.data_df[col].unique())}
cat_sizes.append(len(dct))
mapped = self.data_df[col].map(lambda x: dct[x]).to_numpy().transpose() # pylint: disable=cell-var-from-loop
cat_vars.append(mapped)
return np.vstack(cat_vars), cat_sizes
def _normalize_data(self):
self.scaler = StandardScaler()
train_mat = self.data_mat[:, self.train_range[0] : self.train_range[1]]
self.scaler = self.scaler.fit(train_mat.transpose())
self.data_mat = self.scaler.transform(self.data_mat.transpose()).transpose()
def train_gen(self):
"""Generator for training data."""
num_ts = len(self.ts_cols)
perm = np.arange(
self.train_range[0] + self.hist_len,
self.train_range[1] - self.pred_len,
)
perm = np.random.permutation(perm)
hist_len = self.hist_len
logging.info('Hist len: %s', hist_len)
if not self.epoch_len:
epoch_len = len(perm)
else:
epoch_len = self.epoch_len
for idx in perm[0:epoch_len]:
for _ in range(num_ts // self.batch_size + 1):
if self.permute:
tsidx = np.random.choice(num_ts, size=self.batch_size, replace=False)
else:
tsidx = np.arange(num_ts)
dtimes = np.arange(idx - hist_len, idx + self.pred_len)
(
bts_train,
bts_pred,
bfeats_train,
bfeats_pred,
bcf_train,
bcf_pred,
) = self._get_features_and_ts(dtimes, tsidx, hist_len)
all_data = [
bts_train,
bfeats_train,
bcf_train,
bts_pred,
bfeats_pred,
bcf_pred,
tsidx,
]
yield tuple(all_data)
def test_val_gen(self, mode='val', shift=1):
"""Generator for validation/test data."""
if mode == 'val':
start = self.val_range[0]
end = self.val_range[1] - self.pred_len + 1
elif mode == 'test':
start = self.test_range[0]
end = self.test_range[1] - self.pred_len + 1
else:
raise NotImplementedError('Eval mode not implemented')
num_ts = len(self.ts_cols)
hist_len = self.hist_len
logging.info('Hist len: %s', hist_len)
perm = np.arange(start, end)
if self.epoch_len:
epoch_len = self.epoch_len
else:
epoch_len = len(perm)
for i in range(0, epoch_len, shift):
idx = perm[i]
for batch_idx in range(0, num_ts, self.batch_size):
tsidx = np.arange(batch_idx, min(batch_idx + self.batch_size, num_ts))
dtimes = np.arange(idx - hist_len, idx + self.pred_len)
(
bts_train,
bts_pred,
bfeats_train,
bfeats_pred,
bcf_train,
bcf_pred,
) = self._get_features_and_ts(dtimes, tsidx, hist_len)
all_data = [
bts_train,
bfeats_train,
bcf_train,
bts_pred,
bfeats_pred,
bcf_pred,
tsidx,
]
yield tuple(all_data)
def _get_features_and_ts(self, dtimes, tsidx, hist_len=None):
"""Get features and ts in specified windows."""
if hist_len is None:
hist_len = self.hist_len
data_times = dtimes[dtimes < self.data_mat.shape[1]]
bdata = self.data_mat[:, data_times]
bts = bdata[tsidx, :]
bnf = self.num_feat_mat[:, data_times]
bcf = self.cat_feat_mat[:, data_times]
btf = self.time_mat[:, dtimes]
if bnf.shape[1] < btf.shape[1]:
rem_len = btf.shape[1] - bnf.shape[1]
rem_rep = np.repeat(bnf[:, [-1]], repeats=rem_len)
rem_rep_cat = np.repeat(bcf[:, [-1]], repeats=rem_len)
bnf = np.hstack([bnf, rem_rep.reshape(bnf.shape[0], -1)])
bcf = np.hstack([bcf, rem_rep_cat.reshape(bcf.shape[0], -1)])
bfeats = np.vstack([btf, bnf])
bts_train = bts[:, 0:hist_len]
bts_pred = bts[:, hist_len:]
bfeats_train = bfeats[:, 0:hist_len]
bfeats_pred = bfeats[:, hist_len:]
bcf_train = bcf[:, 0:hist_len]
bcf_pred = bcf[:, hist_len:]
return bts_train, bts_pred, bfeats_train, bfeats_pred, bcf_train, bcf_pred
def tf_dataset(self, mode='train', shift=1):
"""Tensorflow Dataset."""
if mode == 'train':
gen_fn = self.train_gen
else:
gen_fn = lambda: self.test_val_gen(mode, shift)
output_types = tuple(
[tf.float32] * 2 + [tf.int32] + [tf.float32] * 2 + [tf.int32] * 2
)
dataset = tf.data.Dataset.from_generator(gen_fn, output_types)
dataset = dataset.prefetch(tf.data.experimental.AUTOTUNE)
return dataset
@@ -0,0 +1,255 @@
# Copyright 2024 The Google Research Authors.
#
# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at
#
# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.
"""Eval pipeline."""
import json
import os
import sys
import time
from absl import flags
import chronos
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from paxml import checkpoints
import timesfm
import torch
import tqdm
from . import data_loader
FLAGS = flags.FLAGS
_BATCH_SIZE = flags.DEFINE_integer(
"batch_size", 64, "Batch size for the randomly sampled batch"
)
_DATASET = flags.DEFINE_string("dataset", "etth1", "The name of the dataset.")
_MODEL_PATH = flags.DEFINE_string(
"model_path", "./timesfm_q10_20240501", "The name of the dataset."
)
_DATETIME_COL = flags.DEFINE_string(
"datetime_col", "date", "Column having datetime."
)
_NUM_COV_COLS = flags.DEFINE_list(
"num_cov_cols", None, "Column having numerical features."
)
_CAT_COV_COLS = flags.DEFINE_list(
"cat_cov_cols", None, "Column having categorical features."
)
_TS_COLS = flags.DEFINE_list("ts_cols", None, "Columns of time-series features")
_NORMALIZE = flags.DEFINE_bool(
"normalize", True, "normalize data for eval or not"
)
_CONTEXT_LEN = flags.DEFINE_integer(
"context_len", 512, "Length of the context window"
)
_PRED_LEN = flags.DEFINE_integer("pred_len", 96, "prediction length.")
_BACKEND = flags.DEFINE_string("backend", "gpu", "backend to use")
_RESULTS_DIR = flags.DEFINE_string(
"results_dir", "./results/long_horizon", "results directory"
)
DATA_DICT = {
"ettm2": {
"boundaries": [34560, 46080, 57600],
"data_path": "./datasets/ETT-small/ETTm2.csv",
"freq": "15min",
},
"ettm1": {
"boundaries": [34560, 46080, 57600],
"data_path": "./datasets/ETT-small/ETTm1.csv",
"freq": "15min",
},
"etth2": {
"boundaries": [8640, 11520, 14400],
"data_path": "./datasets/ETT-small/ETTh2.csv",
"freq": "H",
},
"etth1": {
"boundaries": [8640, 11520, 14400],
"data_path": "./datasets/ETT-small/ETTh1.csv",
"freq": "H",
},
"elec": {
"boundaries": [18413, 21044, 26304],
"data_path": "./datasets/electricity/electricity.csv",
"freq": "H",
},
"traffic": {
"boundaries": [12280, 14036, 17544],
"data_path": "./datasets/traffic/traffic.csv",
"freq": "H",
},
"weather": {
"boundaries": [36887, 42157, 52696],
"data_path": "./datasets/weather/weather.csv",
"freq": "10min",
},
}
QUANTILES = list(np.arange(1, 10) / 10.0)
EPS = 1e-7
def get_forecasts(model_path, model, past, freq, pred_len):
"""Get forecasts."""
if model_path.startswith("amazon"):
out = model.predict(
torch.tensor(past),
prediction_length=pred_len,
limit_prediction_length=False,
)
out = out.numpy()
out = np.median(out, axis=1)
else:
lfreq = [freq] * past.shape[0]
_, out = model.forecast(list(past), lfreq)
out = out[:, :, 5]
return out
def _mse(y_pred, y_true):
"""mse loss."""
return np.square(y_pred - y_true)
def _mae(y_pred, y_true):
"""mae loss."""
return np.abs(y_pred - y_true)
def _smape(y_pred, y_true):
"""_smape loss."""
abs_diff = np.abs(y_pred - y_true)
abs_val = (np.abs(y_true) + np.abs(y_pred)) / 2
abs_val = np.where(abs_val > EPS, abs_val, 1.0)
abs_diff = np.where(abs_val > EPS, abs_diff, 0.0)
return abs_diff / abs_val
def eval():
"""Eval pipeline."""
dataset = _DATASET.value
data_path = DATA_DICT[dataset]["data_path"]
freq = DATA_DICT[dataset]["freq"]
int_freq = timesfm.freq_map(freq)
boundaries = DATA_DICT[dataset]["boundaries"]
data_df = pd.read_csv(open(data_path, "r"))
if _TS_COLS.value is not None:
ts_cols = DATA_DICT[dataset]["ts_cols"]
num_cov_cols = DATA_DICT[dataset]["num_cov_cols"]
cat_cov_cols = DATA_DICT[dataset]["cat_cov_cols"]
else:
ts_cols = [col for col in data_df.columns if col != _DATETIME_COL.value]
num_cov_cols = None
cat_cov_cols = None
batch_size = min(_BATCH_SIZE.value, len(ts_cols))
dtl = data_loader.TimeSeriesdata(
data_path=data_path,
datetime_col=_DATETIME_COL.value,
num_cov_cols=num_cov_cols,
cat_cov_cols=cat_cov_cols,
ts_cols=np.array(ts_cols),
train_range=[0, boundaries[0]],
val_range=[boundaries[0], boundaries[1]],
test_range=[boundaries[1], boundaries[2]],
hist_len=_CONTEXT_LEN.value,
pred_len=_PRED_LEN.value,
batch_size=batch_size,
freq=freq,
normalize=_NORMALIZE.value,
epoch_len=None,
holiday=False,
permute=False,
)
eval_itr = dtl.tf_dataset(
mode="test", shift=_PRED_LEN.value
).as_numpy_iterator()
model_path = _MODEL_PATH.value
if model_path.startswith("amazon"):
model = chronos.ChronosPipeline.from_pretrained(
model_path,
device_map="auto",
torch_dtype=torch.bfloat16,
)
else:
model = timesfm.TimesFm(
context_len=_CONTEXT_LEN.value,
horizon_len=_PRED_LEN.value,
input_patch_len=32,
output_patch_len=128,
num_layers=20,
model_dims=1280,
backend=_BACKEND.value,
per_core_batch_size=batch_size,
quantiles=QUANTILES,
)
model.load_from_checkpoint(
model_path,
checkpoint_type=checkpoints.CheckpointType.FLAX,
)
smape_run_losses = []
mse_run_losses = []
mae_run_losses = []
num_elements = 0
abs_sum = 0
start_time = time.time()
for batch in tqdm.tqdm(eval_itr):
past = batch[0]
actuals = batch[3]
forecasts = get_forecasts(
model_path, model, past, int_freq, _PRED_LEN.value
)
forecasts = forecasts[:, 0 : actuals.shape[1]]
mae_run_losses.append(_mae(forecasts, actuals).sum())
mse_run_losses.append(_mse(forecasts, actuals).sum())
smape_run_losses.append(_smape(forecasts, actuals).sum())
num_elements += actuals.shape[0] * actuals.shape[1]
abs_sum += np.abs(actuals).sum()
mse_val = np.sum(mse_run_losses) / num_elements
result_dict = {
"mse": mse_val,
"smape": np.sum(smape_run_losses) / num_elements,
"mae": np.sum(mae_run_losses) / num_elements,
"wape": np.sum(mae_run_losses) / abs_sum,
"nrmse": np.sqrt(mse_val) / (abs_sum / num_elements),
"num_elements": num_elements,
"abs_sum": abs_sum,
"total_time": time.time() - start_time,
"model_path": model_path,
"dataset": dataset,
"freq": freq,
"pred_len": _PRED_LEN.value,
"context_len": _CONTEXT_LEN.value,
}
run_id = np.random.randint(10000)
save_path = os.path.join(_RESULTS_DIR.value, str(run_id))
print(f"Saving results to {save_path}", flush=True)
os.makedirs(save_path, exist_ok=True)
with open(os.path.join(save_path, "results.json"), "w") as f:
json.dump(result_dict, f)
print(result_dict, flush=True)
if __name__ == "__main__":
FLAGS = flags.FLAGS
FLAGS(sys.argv)
eval()
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# Copyright 2024 The Google Research Authors.
#
# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at
#
# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.
"""Directory to extract time covariates.
Extract time covariates from datetime.
"""
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from pandas.tseries.holiday import EasterMonday
from pandas.tseries.holiday import GoodFriday
from pandas.tseries.holiday import Holiday
from pandas.tseries.holiday import SU
from pandas.tseries.holiday import TH
from pandas.tseries.holiday import USColumbusDay
from pandas.tseries.holiday import USLaborDay
from pandas.tseries.holiday import USMartinLutherKingJr
from pandas.tseries.holiday import USMemorialDay
from pandas.tseries.holiday import USPresidentsDay
from pandas.tseries.holiday import USThanksgivingDay
from pandas.tseries.offsets import DateOffset
from pandas.tseries.offsets import Day
from pandas.tseries.offsets import Easter
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
from tqdm import tqdm
# This is 183 to cover half a year (in both directions), also for leap years
# + 17 as Eastern can be between March, 22 - April, 25
MAX_WINDOW = 183 + 17
def _distance_to_holiday(holiday):
"""Return distance to given holiday."""
def _distance_to_day(index):
holiday_date = holiday.dates(
index - pd.Timedelta(days=MAX_WINDOW),
index + pd.Timedelta(days=MAX_WINDOW),
)
assert (
len(holiday_date) != 0 # pylint: disable=g-explicit-length-test
), f"No closest holiday for the date index {index} found."
# It sometimes returns two dates if it is exactly half a year after the
# holiday. In this case, the smaller distance (182 days) is returned.
return (index - holiday_date[0]).days
return _distance_to_day
EasterSunday = Holiday(
"Easter Sunday", month=1, day=1, offset=[Easter(), Day(0)]
)
NewYearsDay = Holiday("New Years Day", month=1, day=1)
SuperBowl = Holiday(
"Superbowl", month=2, day=1, offset=DateOffset(weekday=SU(1))
)
MothersDay = Holiday(
"Mothers Day", month=5, day=1, offset=DateOffset(weekday=SU(2))
)
IndependenceDay = Holiday("Independence Day", month=7, day=4)
ChristmasEve = Holiday("Christmas", month=12, day=24)
ChristmasDay = Holiday("Christmas", month=12, day=25)
NewYearsEve = Holiday("New Years Eve", month=12, day=31)
BlackFriday = Holiday(
"Black Friday",
month=11,
day=1,
offset=[pd.DateOffset(weekday=TH(4)), Day(1)],
)
CyberMonday = Holiday(
"Cyber Monday",
month=11,
day=1,
offset=[pd.DateOffset(weekday=TH(4)), Day(4)],
)
HOLIDAYS = [
EasterMonday,
GoodFriday,
USColumbusDay,
USLaborDay,
USMartinLutherKingJr,
USMemorialDay,
USPresidentsDay,
USThanksgivingDay,
EasterSunday,
NewYearsDay,
SuperBowl,
MothersDay,
IndependenceDay,
ChristmasEve,
ChristmasDay,
NewYearsEve,
BlackFriday,
CyberMonday,
]
class TimeCovariates(object):
"""Extract all time covariates except for holidays."""
def __init__(
self,
datetimes,
normalized=True,
holiday=False,
):
"""Init function.
Args:
datetimes: pandas DatetimeIndex (lowest granularity supported is min)
normalized: whether to normalize features or not
holiday: fetch holiday features or not
Returns:
None
"""
self.normalized = normalized
self.dti = datetimes
self.holiday = holiday
def _minute_of_hour(self):
minutes = np.array(self.dti.minute, dtype=np.float32)
if self.normalized:
minutes = minutes / 59.0 - 0.5
return minutes
def _hour_of_day(self):
hours = np.array(self.dti.hour, dtype=np.float32)
if self.normalized:
hours = hours / 23.0 - 0.5
return hours
def _day_of_week(self):
day_week = np.array(self.dti.dayofweek, dtype=np.float32)
if self.normalized:
day_week = day_week / 6.0 - 0.5
return day_week
def _day_of_month(self):
day_month = np.array(self.dti.day, dtype=np.float32)
if self.normalized:
day_month = day_month / 30.0 - 0.5
return day_month
def _day_of_year(self):
day_year = np.array(self.dti.dayofyear, dtype=np.float32)
if self.normalized:
day_year = day_year / 364.0 - 0.5
return day_year
def _month_of_year(self):
month_year = np.array(self.dti.month, dtype=np.float32)
if self.normalized:
month_year = month_year / 11.0 - 0.5
return month_year
def _week_of_year(self):
week_year = np.array(self.dti.strftime("%U").astype(int), dtype=np.float32)
if self.normalized:
week_year = week_year / 51.0 - 0.5
return week_year
def _get_holidays(self):
dti_series = self.dti.to_series()
hol_variates = np.vstack([
dti_series.apply(_distance_to_holiday(h)).values for h in tqdm(HOLIDAYS)
])
# hol_variates is (num_holiday, num_time_steps), the normalization should be
# performed in the num_time_steps dimension.
return StandardScaler().fit_transform(hol_variates.T).T
def get_covariates(self):
"""Get all time covariates."""
moh = self._minute_of_hour().reshape(1, -1)
hod = self._hour_of_day().reshape(1, -1)
dom = self._day_of_month().reshape(1, -1)
dow = self._day_of_week().reshape(1, -1)
doy = self._day_of_year().reshape(1, -1)
moy = self._month_of_year().reshape(1, -1)
woy = self._week_of_year().reshape(1, -1)
all_covs = [
moh,
hod,
dom,
dow,
doy,
moy,
woy,
]
columns = ["moh", "hod", "dom", "dow", "doy", "moy", "woy"]
if self.holiday:
hol_covs = self._get_holidays()
all_covs.append(hol_covs)
columns += [f"hol_{i}" for i in range(len(HOLIDAYS))]
return pd.DataFrame(
data=np.vstack(all_covs).transpose(),
columns=columns,
index=self.dti,
)