fix(calibration): 校准幂等+已校准状态显示,解决重复提示

根因:预测准确度卡的偏差来自历史回填项目的预测vs实际,属既成事实,
不会因校准改变;且原 apply 公式 next=current+dev 会累加,反复点越推越高。

修复:
- 校准建议/应用均基于未校准原始基准(env/默认)计算,保证幂等
- GET /api/calibration 返回 uncalibratedBase 与 calibrated 标志
- 卡片:已校准时显示「已按当前偏差校准:基准X%」绿色状态,不再出现按钮;
  未校准时按钮明示「X% → Y%」
- 补充说明:历史偏差不会因校准改变,校准仅调整后续承接建议阈值

src/server/index.ts

@@ -358,6 +358,18 @@ function targetNetMargin(): number {
   return Number.isFinite(v) && v > 0 ? v : DEFAULT_TARGET_NET_MARGIN;
 }
 
+/** 未校准的原始目标净利率基准（env/默认，忽略校准覆盖）。校准始终基于此基准做一次性补偿，保证幂等。 */
+function uncalibratedTargetNetMargin(): number {
+  const v = Number(process.env.TARGET_NET_MARGIN);
+  return Number.isFinite(v) && v > 0 ? v : DEFAULT_TARGET_NET_MARGIN;
+}
+
+/** 据系统性偏差计算建议的目标净利率基准（基于未校准基准，夹取 [2%,30%]）。 */
+function suggestedTargetBase(deviationPct: number): number {
+  const base = uncalibratedTargetNetMargin();
+  return Math.min(0.3, Math.max(0.02, Math.round((base + deviationPct / 100) * 1000) / 1000));
+}
+
 /**
  * POST /api/assessments/classify
  * 输入项目描述，返回业务类型与行业识别结果。
@@ -885,6 +897,7 @@ app.get('/api/accuracy', async (c) => {
  */
 app.get('/api/calibration', async (c) => {
   const current = targetNetMargin();
+  const uncalibrated = uncalibratedTargetNetMargin();
   let suggested = current;
   let bias: string | null = null;
   let deviationPct: number | null = null;
@@ -893,16 +906,18 @@ app.get('/api/calibration', async (c) => {
     bias = acc.bias;
     deviationPct = acc.avgDeviationPct;
     if (acc.avgDeviationPct !== null && acc.count > 0) {
-      // 预测偏乐观（dev>0）→ 抬高要求的目标净利率以补偿；偏保守则下调。夹取 [2%,30%]。
-      suggested = Math.min(0.3, Math.max(0.02, Math.round((current + acc.avgDeviationPct / 100) * 1000) / 1000));
+      // 预测偏乐观（dev>0）→ 抬高要求的目标净利率以补偿；偏保守则下调。基于未校准基准，保证幂等。
+      suggested = suggestedTargetBase(acc.avgDeviationPct);
     }
   }
-  return c.json({ currentBase: current, suggestedBase: suggested, bias, deviationPct });
+  // 已校准：当前基准已等于（或非常接近）据当前偏差计算的建议基准，无需再次应用。
+  const calibrated = calibratedTargetBase !== null && Math.abs(current - suggested) < 1e-6;
+  return c.json({ currentBase: current, suggestedBase: suggested, uncalibratedBase: uncalibrated, calibrated, bias, deviationPct });
 });
 
 /**
  * POST /api/calibration/apply
- * 应用校准：将目标净利率基准设为据预测偏差计算的建议值（管理层）。
+ * 应用校准：将目标净利率基准设为据预测偏差计算的建议值（管理层）。基于未校准基准，幂等。
  */
 app.post('/api/calibration/apply', requireRole('管理层'), async (c) => {
   if (pool === null) return c.json({ error: '未配置数据库' }, 400);
@@ -911,7 +926,7 @@ app.post('/api/calibration/apply', requireRole('管理层'), async (c) => {
     return c.json({ error: '暂无足够的实际值回填数据用于校准' }, 400);
   }
   const current = targetNetMargin();
-  const next = Math.min(0.3, Math.max(0.02, Math.round((current + acc.avgDeviationPct / 100) * 1000) / 1000));
+  const next = suggestedTargetBase(acc.avgDeviationPct);
   await setSetting(pool, 'targetMarginBase', next);
   calibratedTargetBase = next;
   return c.json({ appliedBase: next, previousBase: current, deviationPct: acc.avgDeviationPct });

web/src/api/client.ts

@@ -566,6 +566,18 @@ export async function applyCalibration(): Promise<{ appliedBase: number; previou
   return request('POST', '/api/calibration/apply', {});
 }
 
+/** 查询当前目标净利率基准与据偏差计算的建议基准、是否已校准。 */
+export async function fetchCalibration(): Promise<{
+  currentBase: number;
+  suggestedBase: number;
+  uncalibratedBase: number;
+  calibrated: boolean;
+  bias: string | null;
+  deviationPct: number | null;
+}> {
+  return request('GET', '/api/calibration');
+}
+
 /** 风控/管理层对「待核实」红线进行人工裁定（命中/未命中），闭环判定。 */
 export async function submitRedlineVerdict(
   id: string,

web/src/pages/Dashboard.tsx

@@ -17,7 +17,10 @@ import {
   space,
   typographyStyle,
 } from '../design-system/components/styles.js';
-import { fetchAssessmentsPage, fetchSummary, archiveAssessment, applyCalibration, listDrafts, deleteDraftApi, fetchAssignments, API_BASE } from '../api/client.js';
+import { fetchAssessmentsPage, fetchSummary, archiveAssessment, applyCalibration, fetchCalibration, listDrafts, deleteDraftApi, fetchAssignments, API_BASE } from '../api/client.js';
+
+// 校准状态类型（目标净利率基准）。
+type CalibrationState = { currentBase: number; suggestedBase: number; uncalibratedBase: number; calibrated: boolean; bias: string | null; deviationPct: number | null };
 import type { AssessmentListItem, WorkflowStatus, DraftItem, AssignmentRecord } from '../api/client.js';
 import { useAuthStore } from '../stores/authStore.js';
 import { GuideBanner } from '../app/Guidance.js';
@@ -116,6 +119,8 @@ export function Dashboard(): JSX.Element {
   const [overdue, setOverdue] = useState<Array<{ id: string; project: string; overdueHours: number }>>([]);
   const [rejectStats, setRejectStats] = useState<Array<{ reasonType: string; count: number }>>([]);
   const [accuracy, setAccuracy] = useState<{ count: number; avgPredictedPct: number | null; avgActualPct: number | null; avgDeviationPct: number | null; bias: string | null }>({ count: 0, avgPredictedPct: null, avgActualPct: null, avgDeviationPct: null, bias: null });
+  // 校准状态（目标净利率基准）。
+  const [calibration, setCalibration] = useState<CalibrationState | null>(null);
 
   // 搜索防抖
   useEffect(() => {
@@ -157,12 +162,13 @@ export function Dashboard(): JSX.Element {
     }
     // 组合分析（准确度/驳回Top/到期/超时）面向风控与管理层；销售视图不展示（避免跨人数据）。
     if (role === '商务/销售') {
-      setExpiring([]); setOverdue([]); setRejectStats([]); setAccuracy({ count: 0, avgPredictedPct: null, avgActualPct: null, avgDeviationPct: null, bias: null });
+      setExpiring([]); setOverdue([]); setRejectStats([]); setAccuracy({ count: 0, avgPredictedPct: null, avgActualPct: null, avgDeviationPct: null, bias: null }); setCalibration(null);
     } else {
       fetch(`${API_BASE}/api/assessments/expiring`).then((r) => r.json()).then(setExpiring).catch(() => setExpiring([]));
       fetch(`${API_BASE}/api/assessments/overdue`).then((r) => r.json()).then(setOverdue).catch(() => setOverdue([]));
       fetch(`${API_BASE}/api/reject-reason-stats`).then((r) => r.json()).then(setRejectStats).catch(() => setRejectStats([]));
       fetch(`${API_BASE}/api/accuracy`).then((r) => r.json()).then(setAccuracy).catch(() => undefined);
+      fetchCalibration().then(setCalibration).catch(() => setCalibration(null));
     }
     // 草稿箱（仅销售展示）：列出当前用户的向导草稿。
     if (role === '商务/销售') {
@@ -472,21 +478,36 @@ export function Dashboard(): JSX.Element {
                 </div>
                 {!consistent && (
                   <div style={{ ...typographyStyle('caption'), color: colorVar('color.text.secondary'), marginTop: `${space(2)}px`, lineHeight: 1.6 }}>
-                    {accuracy.bias === '预测偏乐观' ? '建议下调报价预期或上调成本假设进行校准。' : '成本假设或偏保守，可适当下调目标基准。'}
+                    {accuracy.bias === '预测偏乐观' ? '建议上调目标净利率基准以补偿系统性乐观偏差。' : '预测偏保守，可适当下调目标净利率基准。'}
+                    {calibration !== null && (
+                      <span> 当前基准 <strong>{(calibration.currentBase * 100).toFixed(1)}%</strong>
+                        {!calibration.calibrated && <>，建议调整为 <strong style={{ color: accent }}>{(calibration.suggestedBase * 100).toFixed(1)}%</strong></>}。</span>
+                    )}
                   </div>
                 )}
-                {role === '管理层' && !consistent && (
+                {role === '管理层' && !consistent && calibration !== null && (
+                  calibration.calibrated ? (
+                    <div style={{ marginTop: `${space(3)}px`, display: 'inline-flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 6, padding: `${space(1)}px ${space(3)}px`, borderRadius: `${RADIUS.md}px`, backgroundColor: 'rgba(16,128,61,0.10)', color: '#15803D', ...typographyStyle('caption'), fontWeight: 600 }}>
+                      <Icon name="check-circle" size={14} /> 已按当前偏差校准：目标净利率基准 {(calibration.currentBase * 100).toFixed(1)}%
+                    </div>
+                  ) : (
                     <button
                       type="button"
                       onClick={() => {
                         applyCalibration()
-                        .then((r) => { setError(null); setNotice(`已应用校准：目标净利率基准 ${(r.previousBase * 100).toFixed(1)}% → ${(r.appliedBase * 100).toFixed(1)}%`); loadAux(); })
+                          .then((r) => { setError(null); setNotice(`已应用校准：目标净利率基准 ${(r.previousBase * 100).toFixed(1)}% → ${(r.appliedBase * 100).toFixed(1)}%（影响后续承接建议阈值）`); loadAux(); })
                           .catch((e: unknown) => setError(e instanceof Error ? e.message : '校准失败'));
                       }}
                       style={{ marginTop: `${space(3)}px`, display: 'inline-flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 6, padding: `${space(1)}px ${space(3)}px`, borderRadius: `${RADIUS.md}px`, border: `1px solid ${accent}`, background: 'transparent', color: accent, cursor: 'pointer', fontFamily: FONT_FAMILY, ...typographyStyle('caption'), fontWeight: 600 }}
                     >
-                    <Icon name="settings" size={14} /> 应用校准建议
+                      <Icon name="settings" size={14} /> 应用校准建议（{(calibration.currentBase * 100).toFixed(1)}% → {(calibration.suggestedBase * 100).toFixed(1)}%）
                     </button>
+                  )
+                )}
+                {role === '管理层' && !consistent && (
+                  <div style={{ ...typographyStyle('caption'), color: colorVar('color.text.secondary'), marginTop: `${space(2)}px`, fontSize: '11px', lineHeight: 1.6 }}>
+                    注：上方偏差来自已回填项目的历史预测与实际对比，属既成事实，不会因校准而改变；校准仅调整后续评估的目标净利率基准（影响承接建议阈值）。
+                  </div>
                 )}
               </div>
             );